Application of Markov Model to the Study of Asthma in Nigeria (A Case Study of Federal Medical Centre Jalingo Taraba State)
Okorie, Charity Ebelechukwu *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Saleh, Ramatu
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Otti, Emeka Emmanuel
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Nwaokolo, Martin Afam
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Iroka. Jude
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Asthma is a disorder of the respiratory system in which the passages that enable air to pass in and out of the lungs periodically becomes narrow, causing coughing, wheezing, and shortness of breath. This disorder makes the victim uncomfortable and sometimes exposed such a person to untimely death. Because of this reason, we want to determine the future occurrence of Asthma and also find out the age that is mostly affected with Asthma. Sample data were collected at Federal Medical Centre Jalingo. Markov chain model was used to solve the problem and maple 13 package was used to plot the graph of the sample data and that of the predicted transition probability which shows that as the year increases, there is an increase in the predicted transition probability which clearly shows that asthmatic patient increases along the years. It was also observed that there is likely more Asthmatic case at state 1 followed by state 3 and finally state 2.
Keywords: Cutaneous tuberculosis, Asthma, Serum proteins in tuberculosis, transition Markov chain, probability, patient, occurrence, predicted