Forecasting Malaria Cases in Adamawa State in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model
Ibrahim, Abdulmudallib *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Wukari, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Bamigbala, Olateju Alao
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Wukari, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Joshua Thankgod
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Wukari, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Salihu Hauwa Danjuma
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Kashere, Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The study was carried out to forecast malaria cases in Adamawa State. The study used ARMA models to anticipate monthly malaria cases, and an ADF test was used to check for data stationarity. The ARMA (3,2) and ARMA (4,2) models were used for forecasting monthly cases of malaria for children under 5 years of age and those older than 5 years of age respectively, these are the best acceptable models for the series based on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Malaria cases for children under the age of five years will be at an all-time high in August over the next five years, according to the study's predictions while malaria cases for people above the age of five years will remain stable. The study recommends that the government educate the state on how to prevent malaria and also make provision for mosquito nets for the populace.
Keywords: Anti malaria trials, Malaria, Herbal extracts., ARMA, forecasting, adamawa